The report examined the extent, methods and consequences of tax evasion. It also identified the policy measures required to curb tax evasion.

The report assessed the fiscal stance of the State Government while implementing the provisions of the FRBM Act for the year 2011-12 as per the amendments to the Act in accordance with the recommendations of the 13th Finance Commission. The review report contains detailed evaluation of the State finances as projected in the budget for the year 2011-12 and the budget outturns as reported in the Finance Accounts for the year, keeping the fiscal targets of the FRBM Act in view.

The impact of fiscal policy at the firm level is a rare area of research. This study examined the significance of fiscal policy –especially the royalty regime – in determining the competitiveness of the mining sector. The study is confined to the mining regime of non-ferrous non-atomic minerals, focusing on zinc and lead (Zn-Pb) mine firms. It is often emphasized that the only crucial factor which affect the competitiveness of the firm are the quality of mineral endowments and the firm level performance variables. The firm level variables include the cost of production and the financing modes of the firm, among many other factors. However, in recent years this conservative view has come increasingly under confrontation by the executives in the extractive industries and the economists, emphasizing the importance of the role of government policies – taxation regime, royalty regime and regulations—in enhancing and undermining the competitiveness. Against the backdrop of the Planning Commissions’ High-level Committee Report on National Mineral Policy (referred as Hoda Committee), MMDR 2011 and the 2011 Study Group on Royalty by Government of India, this study analyzed the mining royalty mechanism of Zn-Pb sector. The study incorporates the plausible conceptual and methodological revisions required for ad valorem rates of Zn-Pb linked to London Metal Prices and also examined the alternative mining royalty ad valorem regimes, including Net Smelter Returns (NSR) royalty.

The study has addressed the issues related to the trends in revenue receipts -- major taxes and non-tax revenues of Himachal Pradesh, for identifying areas of relatively weak performance in comparison with some similar States and suggests measures for improving revenue performance.

This report analyses selected aspects of spending under the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) in Karnataka and Rajasthan. Analysis suggests that funds provided by the Central government through NRHM have complimented the expenditure incurred by State governments. Data from these two States does not provide any evidence of substitution of spending by States with funds available under NRHM. Analysis also shows that about 60-70 per cent of the funds provided under the flexible pools of NRHM are spent at/below the district level. The degree of decentralisation was higher in the RCH Flexible Pool than in the Mission Flexible Pool. The level of devolution of funds for facility-level spending was found to be higher in Karnataka than in Rajasthan. Through analysis of data collected from facilities and administrative offices in three districts, the study presents illustrations of the nature of utilisation of funds provided to facilities for discretionary spending. The study also attempts to identify factors that limit the level of effective utilisation of discretionary funds provided to facilities under NRHM.

The National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF), announced in Budget 2010-11, is seen as a major step in India's quest for energy security and reducing carbon intensity of energy. Funding research and innovative projects in clean energy technologies, and harnessing renewable energy sources to reduce dependence on fossil fuels constitute the objectives of the NCEF. It is observed that utilization of funds from NCEF has been rather low and disbursements, so far, are aligned more with on-going programmes/missions of various ministries/departments than with the stated objectives of the Fund. This poses potential risk of diluting the focus of NCEF with adverse implications for research and innovation in the clean energy sector in India, especially, in the absence of any identified targets and prioritization. This study has provided a detailed framework for promoting effective utilization and administration of NCEF.

The study was undertaken at the request of the Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers to assess the state specific GST tax base and corresponding revenue neutral rates. As a part of this study, statewise possible revenue loss/gain in the event of introduction of GST was also done.

The report identified the important economic activities that use diesel and discussed the contribution of those sectors in GDP. Other important petroleum products and, their limited substitution possibility in the extant technological setting were highlighted. The modal-mix for transportation in India were also discussed. The relevant policy agenda for diesel in the vision statement for hydrocarbon sector was presented along with a summary on evolution of petroleum products pricing regimes. The importance of petroleum taxes for public finance at the federal and provincial levels was discussed in the context of wider reforms in the administration of taxes. Impact of changes in diesel and/or petroleum prices, including taxes and subsidies, was explored along a few dimensions. Cost of diesel (and/or petroleum products) as a proportion of total cost of production was presented for certain users /sectors, and some suggestions on reform imperatives were offered.

One of the components of National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency is the Framework for Energy Efficient Economic Development (FEED) which seeks to develop fiscal instruments (including innovative fiscal instruments and policy measures) to promote energy efficiency across the country. Under the FEED framework, the study examined the existing fiscal and monetary policy framework for facilitating the objective of enhancing energy efficiency in the country and suggest appropriate measures.)

The objective of this paper is to examine the issues in development in States in India arising from management of forest lands with special focus on creation of infrastructure, livelihood, and human development and suggest measures to facilitate creation of infrastructure in hill States.

The objective of the study was to prepare Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act and also to prepare a Medium Term Fiscal Plan for the state.

NIPFP collaborated on a research programme with the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) to address the public policy challenges to UIDAI in expanding financial inclusion in India. This includes, understanding the interface between the banking system, payments system, and challenges with the present regulatory framework for financial inclusion.

Oil is a strategic commodity. The disruption of oil supplies, a quantity shock, can drive an economy to a grinding halt. The price of oil is an equally sensitive subject, both internationally and at home. Whenever global oil prices increase, it triggers a spike in inflation. In India, where the domestic price of most oil products are still largely administered, whenever global oil prices rise, the government is faced with a dilemma whether or not to pass on the price increase to domestic consumers. The oil price policy debate is often animated but rarely takes into account the complex mechanisms through which changes in the global price of oil effect macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, growth, and the fiscal deficit. A study was undertaken to inform the policy debate by doing precisely this. It traced the linkages through which a change in the global price of oil impacts macroeconomic outcomes and quantified these impacts. The main channels through which the impact plays out were integrated into an empirically estimated macroeconomic model. The estimated model was then used to simulate different policy and oil price shock scenarios: a one shot full pass through without a global oil price increase, a gradual pass through without a global price increase, a one shot full pass through with a global price increase., and a gradual pass through with a global price increase. The main policy conclusions that emerged from a comparison of these simulation exercises suggest that a full pass through is desirable for fiscal consolidation and macroeconomic stability, as also to eliminate distortions in resource allocation. However, it would be prudent to eliminate the subsidies in a phased manner, rather than in a single shot, to avoid excessive macroeconomic instability.

The study analyzes the distribution of public spending across different tiers of the health system in four selected States of India, using information from budgets with withdrawals from government treasury by DDOs

The report seeks to assess the problems and identify potential directions for development of the state. It identifies jhum based cultivation as one of the important economic and cultural parameters of the state, and seeks to incorporate implications of the same for developing a strategy. The proposed strategy involves two-pronged approach  i.e. through primary and tertiary sectors. For the primary sector, the suggested approach deals both with organisational issues and consolidation of a diverse portfolio of activities. In the tertiary sector, the strength of the state is located in the relatively higher levels of education in the state. The strategy therefore is to encourage development of a health hub in the state, with a vision to cater to the needs of all states in the north east, since these services are rather limited to this region, and Mizoram has the requisite climate and the political atmosphere for such an activity. This would require not just investment in physical infrastructure, but also gradual evolution in markets, especially labour market, for the transition to become effective.

The main objective of the study was to track the progress, meet stakeholders, identify key challenges and give a thorough review of the mandatory reforms in UIDSSMT schemes for cities in Maharashtra. The study was conducted with nine sample cities. The cities chosen were Aurangabad, Panvel, Shirdi, Malegaon, Panchgani, Jalna, Latur and Kolhapur. The mandatory reforms are on account of e-governance, municipal accounting, property tax, user charges and internal earmarking for urban poor. The study scrutinized elaborately the steps taken by the urban local government to comply with the agenda for reforms. It produced nine reports, one on each city. Overall the findings were satisfactory. All the urban local bodies have attempted to progress on the lines of the UIDSSMT reforms agenda. This is particularly true for e-governance and municipal accounting. The Government of Maharashtra also has contributed in developing an elaborate module for e-governance which can be adopted by the cities.

Study evaluates possible impacts of rising gold imports as well as oil prices on the CAD and other important macroeconomic variables during the 12th Five Year Plan period. The study also identifies policy options to contain the CAD at 2.5 per cent by the end of 12th Plan and indicates the other macroeconomic outcomes related to these options.

The study attempted to delineate the conditions under which India could contain current account balance 2.5 per cent by the end of the 12th Plan.

The objective of the study is to understand the process of decentralisation in general, and evaluate the impact of decentralisation on education and health service delivery, in particular. The study has also undertaken a detailed benefit incidence analysis of education and health services across states based on NSS data.

The key question that the study addressed was “Is the existing municipal finances system adequate for meeting the contemporary challenges of urbanisation, decentralisation, and globalisation?” Analysing a range of data on the finances of municipalities, the study concludes that the existing municipal finance system was inadequate in addressing these challenges. In view of the fact that a number of initiatives for reforming and strengthening the municipal finance system have now been put in place under the JnNURM, the study builds and reinforces them with a set of additional reform initiatives.

This study has attempted to examine the likely revenue implications of the goods and services tax in Karnataka by estimating the GST tax base for the state by making a realistic assessment of taxable base of service sector for the state of Karnataka.

This is an exploratory study on the process and status of decentralisation to rural local governments in different states in India. The study draws lessons from the detailed review of various theories of fiscal federalism. In the background of these, it analyses the functional devolution to the rural local governments in different states in India, examines the status of activity mapping and gores on to undertake activity mapping in some of the states. The analysis of own revenues helps in drawing recommendations to augment the resources of rural local governments. The study also makes a detailed review of the functioning of the State Finance Commissions.

This study provides an overview of the nature of insurance schemes being supported by the Government of India for the vulnerable sections of the population and highlights the financial implication of operating these schemes. It also examines specific aspects of performance of these schemes and the factors affecting them, and discusses issues related to the extent of overlapping between different insurance schemes of the central government and between schemes of the central government and state governments. Additionally, it discusses some of the problems associated with the design and implementation of these insurance schemes.

This report discusses the structure and composition of health expenditure by the Centre, and highlights its distribution across States. Specifically, it focuses on the extent of expenditure through the ‘treasury’ and the ‘non-treasury’ routes and analyses their distribution across States in each of the years between 2006-07 and 2009-10. The analysis suggests that since the mid-nineties, there has been a sharp decline in Central transfers to States through the treasury route and at present, around 70 to 75 per cent of the total expenditure by the Centre at the State-level is incurred through the non-treasury route. An analysis of the distribution of expenditure across States, suggests, that the per capita expenditure under the Flexible Pools of NRHM, the single largest component in the non-treasury route, is higher in the non-high focus States than in the high focus States. In general, there is no systematic relationship of expenditure by the Centre with the performance of States in terms of health indicators.

This paper analyses the impact of international oil price shocks on major macroeconomic variables in India with the help of a macroeconomic policy simulation model. Major three channels of transmission viz. import channel, price channel, and fiscal channel are explored with the help of a macroeconomic (simultaneous equations) framework. The occurrence of a one-time shock in international oil prices is combined with alternative scenarios of deregulation of domestic prices of petroleum products to estimate the outcomes for growth, inflation, fiscal balances and external balances during 2012-13 to 2016-17. A 50 per cent shock in international oil prices at the beginning of 12th Plan period, results in a fall in average GDP growth, while it pushes the inflation rate up both in the year of shock, as well as on an average during the 12th Plan period. In the year of shock the effects are most severe, which gets mitigated slowly by the end of 12th Plan period. For alternative scenarios of pass-through of international oil prices to domestic prices, as the pass-through ratio increases from 0 per cent to 50 per cent and further to 100 per cent and more than 100 per cent, the budgetary subsidy falls with the decline in real economic growth, is likely to become sharper and the inflation rate is likely to go up further. The fiscal deficit to GDP ratio might come down but possibly at the cost of lower growth and higher inflation. If the decline in revenue deficit is compensated by increase in capital expenditure, then the fall in real GDP growth may not be much.

The report intended to build-up and synergize from district-level vision strategies to provide a framework for development in the state.

The objective was to explore the possibility of setting up a venture capital fund to encourage innovation in Pharma development.

The objective of the study was to capture the taxes, levies, and charges applicable on the telecom sector in India on the basis of taxation/ charges, rates of taxation/charges, and total amount mobilised through taxation/ charges on the telecom sector in India.

The objective of the project was to analyze the design and implementation issues including the timing and pattern of release of funds by the Centre to the States under selected centrally sponsored schemes. The report provided several recommendations to improve the flow of funds and effectiveness of utilization of resources – including the need to relook at the system of matching grants by States, better monitoring system of fund utilization, and easier reporting guidelines and formats.

The objective of this report was to prepare the Medium Term Fiscal Policy (MTFP) of Goa for the year 2011. The State Government is required to place the MTFP in the legislature as stipulated in the FRBM Act. The MTFP 2011 represents the fiscal policy objectives and projected fiscal targets in the ensuing budget year and two outward years. A detailed review of the macroeconomic and fiscal performance of Goa for the period from 2004-05 to 2010-11 was undertaken in the MTFP. Based on the review of state finances and the level of fiscal imbalance, the Medium Term Fiscal Plan was prepared for the period between 2011-12 and 2013-14. The assumptions with regard to the revenue forecasts and expenditure restructuring parameters for the preparation of MTFP are arrived at on the basis of the recent data covering the period between 2004-05 and 2010-11 and taking into consideration the policy announcements relating to revenue augmentation measures and expenditure priorities.

The study analyses the impact of keeping crude petroleum, natural gas, motor spirit, high speed diesel and aviation turbine fuel out of the Value Added Tax (VAT) scheme. Specifically, the study finds that keeping these items out of the input tax credit mechanism (either partially or fully) would have high distortionary effects. It proposes more appropriate method of taxing petroleum products under the Goods and Services Tax regime.

The objective of this study was to assess the status of human development in India against stated goals (state level/national/MDGs), estimate the costs of covering the remaining part, and suggest ways of bridging the financial resource gap including ways of devising fruitful partnerships between the government and the private sector.

The project provides an overview of the functions performed and finances raised by the urban local bodies in the state of Jharkhand. On the whole it is found that most of the functions assigned to them are not being performed. The levels of tax and non tax revenues are abysmally low as a result of which there has been an over-dependence on the upper tiers of the governments for grants. Unstable political situation in the state has led to improper utilisation and leakage of funds even at the local level.

The objective of this study was to assess the status of human development in India against stated goals (state level/national/MDGs), estimate the costs of covering the remaining part, and suggest ways of bridging the financial resource gap including ways of devising fruitful partnerships between the government and the private sector.

The objective of this study was to assess the status of human development in India against stated goals (state level/national/MDGs), estimate the costs of covering the remaining part, and suggest ways of bridging the financial resource gap including ways of devising fruitful partnerships between the government and the private sector.

The objective of this project was to investigate various aspects of tobacco products such as its consumption, effect on health, optimal level of taxation to curb consumption of these harmful products while raising revenue out of these products.

This study at NIPFP discusses various taxes that are imposed on different tobacco products. While analysing the effect of taxation on the consumption of tobacco, the report reflects the affordability index and trend in relative prices of various tobacco products over the years. The study also emphasises the issue of progressivity of the tax structure of tobacco products. It is also clear from the analysis that the tobacco tax structure is somewhat regressive in nature.

The study examines the interlinkages between Indian ADR premiums and macroeconomic indicators.

A decomposition analysis pertaining to the change in insider shareholding, the change in market capitalisation and the change in the fraction of outside shareholding that is held by foreigners is conducted to understand the sharp change in foreign ownership of Indian firms after 2001.

This study was undertaken for the Ministry of Finance as a background paper for the Seoul Summit of G-20. It analyzed the impact of the 2008 financial crisis in different G-20 countries, the stimulus packages introduced, and the recovery processes. The study found that there were substantial variations among G-20 countries in terms of decline in economic growth, the size of fiscal and monetary stimuli, as well as response lags. The study noted that there could be similar variations in reversal of policy stimulus measures depending on each country’s domestic economic environment. Although G-20 co-ordination is crucial for global recovery from the crisis, this does not imply simultaneous stimulus withdrawal. Indeed, such simultaneous stimulus withdrawal across all G-20 countries risks a negative global shock leading to another great recession. Conversely, postponing stimulus withdrawal in overheating economies can lead to high inflation. In the case of India, robust growth recovery has been accompanied by high, unsustainable inflation and a high fiscal deficit. Hence, the study argues for immediate withdrawal of the stimulus package. However, it also points out how this has to be nuanced, keeping in view the objectives of high growth and inclusiveness.

A report was prepared by TERI (The Energy Research Institute) and NIPFP to assist the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) in the Ministry of Finance for empanelling transaction advisors for PPP (Public-Private-Partnership) projects. Based on the evaluation criteria stipulated by the MoF in its RfQ (Request for Qualification), both TERI and NIPFP independently devised objective and quantifiable variables to evaluate 30 consortiums of potential transaction advisors. The final panel would constitute those selected on the basis of their capability and experience in discharging a lead role in transactions and providing commercial, financial, and legal advice. The panel is intended to ensure streamlining, transparency, and accountability through clear definition of the processes of the agencies and private sector.

This study attempts to assess the statewise impact of central tax preferences. Since there are a large number of tax preferences, an attempt has been made to assess and allocate the impact of some of the major tax preferences. It is found that if the preferences specifically targeted towards the backward areas are not included, there is a bunching of incentives in higher income states. However, some of this impact is neutralized by the benefits accruing on account of the incentives provided to backward areas.

The above study aimed at carrying out a critical appraisal of the basic theories of fiscal decentralisation and make an evaluation of the actual decentralisation process in India. Analysis of state-wise functional and financial devolution to panchayats, critical review of the fiscal transfer system and formulae adopted by the state governments, examining budgeting and accounting practices, analysis of status of revenues of panchayats, and examination of the approach of State Finance Commissions were the main objectives of the study.

This study is an attempt to evaluate the tax incentives for education and educational institutions within the ambit of income taxes in India. The study suggests that since a significant component of the benefit for education comes through the classification of education as a charitable purpose, it is important to revisit the concept/definition of charitable purpose and processes for ensuring accountability of the institutions that benefit from this clause.

It explores the phenomena of export and import misinvoicing for 35 countries over a 26 year span to identify factors related to misinvoicing. Capital account openness, differentials in interest rates, political stability, corruption, indebtedness and the exchange rate regime are identified as factors related to misinvoicing.

Chapter 9, page 260–279 in “Managing Capital Flows” in The search for a framework, edited by Masahiro Kawai and Mario B. Lamberte, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2011.

The study discusses the key features of Indian financial system and critically analyses the extent of reform that has taken place in this sector.

In 2010 and 2011, there has been a fresh wave of interest in capital controls. India is one of the few large countries with a complex system of capital controls. These studies assess the extent to which these help achieve goals of macroeconomic and financial policy.

Tracking cyclical variation of the state of the economy, i.e., measuring and forecasting business cycle (boom and recession) is essential for implementing policies effectively in the incidence of negative shock. To understand the business cycle in the economy, it is essential to have a comprehensive knowledge of the macroeconomic stylised facts in the economy. This study presents a comprehensive set of stylised facts for business cycles in India during 1950 - 2009 and finds that the nature of the business cycle has changed dramatically after India’s liberalisation and reforms in 1991.

This study investigates relative tax incidence on Indian MNCs vis-à-vis, the domestic firms.

This study investigates whether Indian multinationals have more exposure to the global credit market and how their investment decisions were affected during the crisis.

The study investigates the role of the yuan in the exchange rate arrangements of other economies.

Access to timely and reliable information on the current state of economic activity is essential for effective policy making. Towards this end, early estimates, or nowcasts of GDP (quarterly, released with two-months lag from the end of the quarter) growth in India are obtained by extracting information from high-frequency data to gauge the state of the economy in real time using a multi-sectoral forecast model.

The study addresses those issues which inflation measures best capture in the inflation dynamics in India as well as the measure which is most relevant for monetary policy making in India. It explores questions of timeliness, weights in the price index, accuracy of food price measurement, and the relevance of services prices for measuring inflation in India.

This work proposes a new measure of dollar pegging, the “Bretton Woods II score" to assess the shift in currency regime of Asian countries.