This paper alyses the impact of intertiol oil price shocks on major macroeconomic variables in India with the help of a macroeconomic policy simulation model. Major three channels of transmission viz. import channel, price channel, and fiscal channel are explored with the help of a macroeconomic (simultaneous equations) framework. The occurrence of a one-time shock in intertiol oil prices is combined with altertive scerios of deregulation of domestic prices of petroleum products to estimate the outcomes for growth, inflation, fiscal balances and exterl balances during 2012-13 to 2016-17. A 50 percent shock in intertiol oil prices at the beginning of 12th Plan period, results in a fall in average GDP growth, while it pushes the inflation rate up both in the year of shock, as well as on an average during the 12th Plan period. In the year of shock the effects are most severe, which gets mitigated slowly by the end of 12th Plan period. For altertive scerios of pass-through of intertiol oil prices to domestic prices, as the pass-through ratio increases from 0 percent to 50 percent and further to 100 percent and more than 100 percent, the budgetary subsidy falls with the decline in real economic growth, is likely to become sharper and the inflation rate is likely to go up further. The fiscal deficit to GDP ratio might come down but possibly at the cost of lower growth and higher inflation. If the decline in revenue deficit is compensated by increase in capital expenditure, then the fall in real GDP growth may not be much.

The study alyses the impact of keeping crude petroleum, natural gas, motor spirit, high speed diesel and aviation turbine fuel out of the Value Added Tax (VAT) scheme. Specifically, the study finds that keeping these items out of the input tax credit mechanism (either partially or fully) would have high distortiory effects. It proposes more appropriate method of taxing petroleum products under the Goods and Services Tax regime.

The objective was to explore the possibility of setting up a venture capital fund to encourage innovation in Pharma development.

This report discusses the structure and composition of health expenditure by the Centre, and highlights its distribution across States. Specifically, it focuses on the extent of expenditure through the ‘treasury’ and the ‘non-treasury’ routes and alyses their distribution across States in each of the years between 2006-07 and 2009-10. The alysis suggests that since the mid-nineties, there has been a sharp decline in Central transfers to States through the treasury route and at present, around 70 to 75 per cent of the total expenditure by the Centre at the State-level is incurred through the non-treasury route. An alysis of the distribution of expenditure across States, suggests, that the per capita expenditure under the Flexible Pools of NRHM, the single largest component in the non-treasury route, is higher in the non-high focus States than in the high focus States. In general, there is no systematic relationship of expenditure by the Centre with the performance of States in terms of health indicators.

The objective of the project was to analyze the design and implementation issues including the timing and pattern of release of funds by the Centre to the States under selected centrally sponsored schemes. The report provided several recommendations to improve the flow of funds and effectiveness of utilization of resources – including the need to relook at the system of matching grants by States, better monitoring system of fund utilization, and easier reporting guidelines and formats.

The objective of this report is to prepare the Medium Term Fiscal Policy (MTFP) of Goa for the year 2011. The State Government is required to place the MTFP in the legislature as stipulated in the FRBM Act. The MTFP 2011 represents the fiscal policy objectives and projected fiscal targets in the ensuing budget year and two outward years. A detailed review of the macroeconomic and fiscal performance of Goa for the period from 2004-05 to 2010-11 was undertaken in the MTFP. Based on the review of state finces and the level of fiscal imbalance, the Medium Term Fiscal Plan was prepared for the period between 2011-12 and 2013-14. The assumptions with regard to the revenue forecasts and expenditure restructuring parameters for the preparation of MTFP are arrived at on the basis of the recent data covering the period between 2004-05 and 2010-11 and taking into consideration the policy announcements relating to revenue augmentation measures and expenditure priorities.

The objective of the study is to capture the taxes, levies, and charges applicable on the telecom sector in India on the basis of taxation/ charges, rates of taxation/charges, and total amount mobilised through taxation/ charges on the telecom sector in India.

The report intended to build-up and synergize from district-level vision strategies to provide a framework for development in the state.

This project undertook a comprehensive review and analysis of the process of planning, allocation, and expenditure for elementary education under the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan. It included creating a database for state level Annual Work Plans; tracking the process of fund flows from the centre to states, districts, and filly to schools; and field surveys to assess the efficiency and effectiveness of expenditure at the school level. The project was complimented by a capacity-building exercise of parent-teacher association in Sehore district of Madhya Pradesh.

Against the backdrop of UNFPA-UNIFEM partnership of strengthening the analysis and training of Gender Responsive Budgeting (GRB) globally, four regional chapters were envisioned; in the Asia Pacific and CIS/CEE region. The UN entities entrusted upon NIPFP the task of planning and designing a course structure on the subject and for delivering a global training workshop. The first part of the project, a course structure on GRB was prepared by the author in co-ordition with UNFPA and UNIFEM followed by the development of a ‘NIPFP Resource Pack on GRB’. The second part of the project was the global workshop organised at NIPFP during June 9-12, 2009. 31 participants from nearly 20 countries including UN officials, economists, and officials from Ministry of Finance, Planning Division and other sectoral Ministries of different countries of the region attended the workshop. The final part of the project pertained to submission of the technical GRB Report by NIPFP.

The study addresses those issues which inflation measures best capture in the inflation dynamics in India as well as the measure which is most relevant for monetary policy making in India. It explores questions of timeliness, weights in the price index, accuracy of food price measurement, and the relevance of services prices for measuring inflation in India.

This study provides an overview of the ture of insurance schemes being supported by the Government of India for the vulnerable sections of the population and highlights the fincial implication of operating these schemes. It also examines specific aspects of performance of these schemes and the factors affecting them, and discusses issues related to the extent of overlapping between different insurance schemes of the central government and between schemes of the central government and state governments. Additiolly, it discusses some of the problems associated with the design and implementation of these insurance schemes. 

The objective of the study is to understand the process of decentralisation in general, and evaluate the impact of decentralisation on education and health service delivery, in particular. The study has also undertaken a detailed benefit incidence alysis of education and health services across states based on NSS data.

The above study aim at carrying out a critical appraisal of the basic theories of fiscal decentralisation and make an evaluation of the actual decentralisation process in India. Alysis of state-wise functiol and fincial devolution to panchayats, critical review of the fiscal transfer system and formulae adopted by the state governments, examining budgeting and accounting practices, alysis of status of revenues of panchayats, and examition of the approach of State Fince Commissions are the main objectives of the study.

This is an exploratory study on the process and status of decentralisation to rural local governments in different states in India. The study draws lessons from the detailed review of various theories of fiscal federalism. In the background of these, it alyses the functiol devolution to the rural local governments in different states in India, examines the status of activity mapping and gores on to undertake activity mapping in some of the states. The alysis of own revenues helps in drawing recommendations to augment the resources of rural local governments. The study also makes a detailed review of the functioning of the State Fince Commissions.

The project provides an overview of the functions performed and finces raised by the urban local bodies in the state of Jharkhand. On the whole it is found that most of the functions assigned to them are not being performed. The levels of tax and non tax revenues are abysmally low as a result of which there has been an over-dependence on the upper tiers of the governments for grants. Unstable political situation in the state has led to improper utilisation and leakage of funds even at the local level.

The key question that the study addressed was “Is the existing municipal finces system adequate for meeting the contemporary challenges of urbanisation, decentralisation, and globalisation?” Alysing a range of data on the finces of municipalities, the study concludes that the existing municipal fince system was idequate in addressing these challenges. In view of the fact that a number of initiatives for reforming and strengthening the municipal fince system have now been put in place under the JnNURM, the study builds and reinforces them with a set of additiol reform initiatives.

The Korea Institute of Public Fince, Seoul, Republic of Korea organised a 3-day roundtable to discuss the prelimiry findings of the above NIPFP study. Experts from India, Korea, and Cada were invited to share intertiol experiences. Among others, who attended the roundtable were Urban Development Secretaries from five Indian states viz., Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.

A report was prepared by TERI (The Energy Research Institute) and NIPFP to assist the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) in the Ministry of Fince for empanelling transaction advisors for PPP (Public-Private-Partnership) projects. Based on the evaluation criteria stipulated by the MoF in its RfQ (Request for Qualification), both TERI and NIPFP independently devised objective and quantifiable variables to evaluate 30 consortiums of potential transaction advisors. The fil panel would constitute those selected on the basis of their capability and experience in discharging a lead role in transactions and providing commercial, fincial, and legal advice. The panel is intended to ensure streamlining, transparency, and accountability through clear definition of the processes of the agencies and private sector.

The study investigates the role of the yuan in the exchange rate arrangements of other economies.

In 2010 and 2011, there has been a fresh wave of interest in capital controls. India is one of the few large countries with a complex system of capital controls. These studies assess the extent to which these help achieve goals of macroeconomic and fincial policy.

Tracking cyclical variation of the state of the economy, i.e., measuring and forecasting business cycle (boom and recession) is essential for implementing policies effectively in the incidence of negative shock. To understand the business cycle in the economy, it is essential to have a comprehensive knowledge of the macroeconomic stylised facts in the economy. This study presents a comprehensive set of stylised facts for business cycles in India during 1950 - 2009 and finds that the ture of the business cycle has changed dramatically after India’s liberalisation and reforms in 1991.

Access to timely and reliable information on the current state of economic activity is essential for effective policy making. Towards this end, early estimates, or nowcasts of GDP (quarterly, released with two-months lag from the end of the quarter) growth in India are obtained by extracting information from high-frequency data to gauge the state of the economy in real time using a multi-sectoral forecast model.

This study investigates relative tax incidence on Indian MNCs vis-à-vis, the domestic firms.

This study attempts to assess the statewise impact of central tax preferences. Since there are a large number of tax preferences, an attempt has been made to assess and allocate the impact of some of the major tax preferences. It is found that if the preferences specifically targeted towards the backward areas are not included, there is a bunching of incentives in higher income states. However, some of this impact is neutralized by the benefits accruing on account of the incentives provided to backward areas.

This study was undertaken for the Ministry of Fince as a background paper for the Seoul Summit of G-20. It has alysed the impact of the 2008 fincial crisis in different G-20 countries, the stimulus packages introduced, and the recovery processes. The study found that there were substantial variations among G-20 countries in terms of decline in economic growth, the size of fiscal and monetary stimuli, as well as response lags. The study noted that there could be similar variations in reversal of policy stimulus measures depending on each country’s domestic economic environment. Although G-20 co-ordition is crucial for global recovery from the crisis, this does not imply simultaneous stimulus withdrawal. Indeed, such simultaneous stimulus withdrawal across all G-20 countries risks a negative global shock leading to another great recession. Conversely, postponing stimulus withdrawal in overheating economies can lead to high inflation. In the case of India, robust growth recovery has been accompanied by high, unsustaible inflation and a high fiscal deficit. Hence, the study argues for immediate withdrawal of the stimulus package.However, it also points out how this has to be nuanced, keeping in view the objectives of high growth and inclusiveness.

The study examines the interlinkages between Indian ADR premiums and macroeconomic indicators.

The study discusses the key features of Indian fincial system and critically alyses the extent of reform that has taken place in this sector.

The aim of this project is to bring India closer to achieving monetary policy and fincial sector reform. To explore appropriate monetary and fiscal rules under different institutiol structure, Dymic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for India are attempted in collaboration with the University of Surrey, U.K.

This study investigates whether Indian multinationals have more exposure to the global credit market and how their investment decisions were affected during the crisis.

A decomposition alysis pertaining to the change in insider shareholding, the change in market capitalisation and the change in the fraction of outside shareholding that is held by foreigners is conducted to understand the sharp change in foreign ownership of Indian firms after 2001.

It explores the phenome of export and import misinvoicing for 35 countries over a 26 year span to identify factors related to misinvoicing. Capital account openness, differentials in interest rates, political stability, corruption, indebtedness and the exchange rate regime are identified as factors related to misinvoicing.

This study is an attempt to evaluate the tax incentives for education and educatiol institutions within the ambit of income taxes in India. The study suggests that since a significant component of the benefit for education comes through the classification of education as a charitable purpose, it is important to revisit the concept/definition of charitable purpose and processes for ensuring accountability of the institutions that benefit from this clause.

Chapter 9, page 260–279 in “Maging Capital Flows” in The search for a framework, edited by Masahiro Kawai and Mario B. Lamberte, Edward Elgar Publishing, 2011.

This work proposes a new measure of dollar pegging, the “Bretton Woods II score\" to assess the shift in currency regime of Asian countries.

It examines the human development challenges for Kerala in the context of Eleventh Plan and suggests reform measures to strengthen the State Plan for human development, taking into consideration the unique development experience of Kerala and its second generation problems of human development.

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At the behest of the Thirteenth Fince Commission, the NIPFP undertook this study to assess the untapped potential of property taxation in India. Field data was collected from all metropolitan cities and a few cities in the population range of 500,000 to 1 million. The study gave a number of specific recommendations on tapping the potential and the need to establish state-level bodies to ensure uniformity in the assessment of values of properties.

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The main objective of this research project sponsored by the Planning Commission with UNDP India was to assess the status of human development in India against stated goals (state level/tiol/MDGs), estimate the costs of covering the remaining part, and suggest ways of bridging the fincial resource gap including ways of devising fruitful partnerships between the government and the private sector. The study was to cover eight selected states in greater detail. All the state-level studies (for the states of Tamildu, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, and Maharashtra) have been completed and published as NIPFP monographs.

Making cities and towns “slum-free” and ensuring that no new slum settlements crop up form the centerpiece of the proposed tiol urban poverty reduction strategy. This study, undertaken for the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, takes the position that economic growth is central to poverty reduction; however, urban poverty is an outcome not of merely economic, but social, physical, and political processes. Fighting urban poverty and these processes means giving to the urban poor recognition, security, and stability. The study suggests (i) establishment of a 10-year tiol programme for slum renewal and redevelopment; (ii) a safety net for the urban poor, designed to mitigate the possible adverse effect of economic meltdown and of reform measures; and (iii) laying down a policy to bring additiol lands into the urban fold.

The project involves preparing a survey article on fiscal federalism in India and identifying areas of reform. The study highlights the policy and institutiol shortcomings in Indian fiscal federalism in terms of the assignment system and intergovernmental transfers. Focus areas include impediments to interl trade and allocative distortions, sources of tax and expenditure inefficiency and multiplicity of transferring agencies, poor structure of incentives, and ibility of the transfer system to offset disabilities of poorer states.

This study attempts to assess the statewise impact of central tax preferences. Since there are a large number of tax preferences, an attempt has been made to assess and allocate the impact of some of the major tax preferences. It is found that if the preferences specifically targeted towards the backward areas are not included, there is a bunching of incentives in higher income states. However, some of this impact is neutralized by the benefits accruing on account of the incentives provided to backward areas.

Three distinct outputs/papers are prepared on (i) an update on the centre and state finces focusing on key issues; (ii) an alysis of the effectiveness of current subsidy expenditures; and (iii) a critical review of the infrastructure spending in key sectors, and how the Government of India might prioritise at a time when fiscal space is limited.

This paper uses a modified tax receipts forecasting model to incorporate GDP growth rate explicitly. The method of obtaining projections is also modified to use actual tax collection patterns in Q3 and Q4.

This study examined the regiol distribution of central government expenditure taking states as units of distribution to understand whether central expenditure is fiscally equalising. The study also examined whether progressive distribution of resources recommended by successive Fince Commissions have been offset by other forms of transfer and central expenditure.

The study was undertaken at the request of the Empowered Committee of State Fince Ministers to assess the state specific GST tax base and corresponding revenue neutral rates. As a part of this study, statewise possible revenue loss/gain in the event of introduction of GST was also done.

This study was undertaken at the behest of the Department of Finance, Government of Jharkhand. The study focuses on the major taxes of the state and seeks to identify measures both in policy, and in the administration of the tax for augmenting the revenue potential and revenue collections of the state. The study refers to the year 2008-09.

The objective is to provide a basis for measurement and monitoring of public fincial magement (PFM) performance of the country at union level over time. The PFM assessment of the country at the union level will be carried out using the PEFA Framework (Public Expenditure and Fincial Accountability – World Bank) to prepare a PFM Progress Report showing the rating for each of the performance measurement indicator.

This study provides an assessment of the impact of the incentive schemes in income tax and excise duty for encouraging investment in backward areas of northern states, such as, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Uttarakhand. The study indicates that there is little to suggest long-term sustaibility of the investment that came in response to the incentive regimes. The underlying constraints like infrastructure bottlenecks in Himachal Pradesh would limit the benefit that the state can derive in the long-run.

The study is a part of the major report of the World Bank, entitled, “India Impact of Fincial Crisis and Opportunity”. The study examines the prevailing fiscal policy challenges in the country in the context of global fincial crisis both in terms of fiscal imbalance and fiscal space and goes on to identify areas of short-term and long-term fiscal reforms.

The study critically assesses the key features of the fincial globalisation process in India.

This study has attempted to examine the likely revenue implications of the goods and services tax in Kartaka by estimating the GST tax base for the state by making a realistic assessment of taxable base of service sector for the state of Kartaka.

Sponsored by the Planning Commission, this research work is essentially a status report on the finces of states collectively and individually, with special reference to actual and targeted plan outlays as well as actual vis-à-vis planned resources to fince these outlays. It covers the current decade until the fiscal year 2008-09, and also examines the issues in a disaggregated manner, both by states and by sectors. On the basis of full coverage for Tenth Plan and partial coverage for the Eleventh, it identifies sectors and states with large shortfalls and highlights that at least for the general (non-special) category states, own source resources are the main determint of plan performance.

The objective of the study is to prepare Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Magement Act and also to prepare a Medium Term Fiscal Plan for the state.